Our Northern Nevada Housing Forecast for 2017

As is typical on the precipice of a new year, most everyone ponders the question… What is the real estate market forecast look like in 2017? Are we on the verge of another “bubble” or worse yet, a recession that we are now just digging ourselves out from underneath? Does the recent rise in interest rates, as a result of the Fed’s action affecting the buying population in terms of affordability? Does the lack of inventory and therefore higher prices continue? I wish I had THAT crystal ball. And since no one does, we have to rely on historical data, current conditions and the inevitable trends.

As far as Northern Nevada is concerned, we were one of the areas hardest hit by the collapse in 2008. We have made a strong comeback in real estate with the expansion of incoming technology companies that have recently relocated to the area. Big name tech giants, Tesla, Apple, and Switch, have now current construction projects in both the Reno and Sparks areas. With the proximity to recreational Lake Tahoe as an added draw, we are expecting a flood of tech sector workers over the next couple years.

Additionally, it isn’t just the entrance of those high-paid tech employees fueling the local housing market, but many self-employed or entrepreneurial Californians are leaving the Golden State for tax reasons and claiming, “It’s just too hard to do business there.”

Nevadans enjoy several incredible tax perks, no state income tax, no corporate or warehousing taxes and very favorable real estate tax rates, compared to most states. All of these factors have led to a recent spike in home sales. The lack of inventory and the heightened number of home buyers has driven prices up across the board. Interestingly the bottom and the top-of-the-market have seen the most drastic surges. The midrange properties have stayed more even keel. As we look to 2017, the influx of second-time purchasers in continue to drive the Lake Tahoe upward, and first-time homebuyers will push the valleys real estate marketplace.

When we forecast for the next year, we need to consider statistics and raw data, but also factor in other things like the human element, overall consumer confidence, the political landscape, regulations, and local market data. Here is a snapshot of Northern Nevada, greater Reno/Sparks areas, valley regions and Lake Tahoe communities.

CITY	SUPPLY ON MARKET	DEMAND ON MARKET	PERCENT SELLING	DAYS ON MARKET SOLD	MEDIAN LIST PRICE	MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE	MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
Reno	886	326	77%	92	$436,000	$320,000	$317,000
Sparks	290	171	82%	96	$335,000	$305,000	$300,000
WASHOE COUNTY	1,176	497	79%	93	$411,000	$315,000	$311,000
Fernley	99	41	76%	84	$265,000	$204,000	$203,000
Dayton	61	24	71%	108	$293,000	$227,000	$224,000
Yerington	46	5	59%	125	$238,000	$111,000	$101,000
LYON COUNTY	206	70	73%	95	$273,000	$205,000	$203,000
Gardnerville	114	39	87%	123	$599,000	$288,000	$285,000
Minden	61	43	90%	110	$470,000	$379,000	$370,000
DOUGLAS COUNTY	175	82	89%	116	$531,000	$336,000	$330,000
Fallon	78	49	88%	95	$233,000	$174,000	$173,000
Carson City	148	129	86%	107	$396,000	$265,000	$264,000
Stateline	24	8	84%	234	$865,000	$847,000	$819,000
Zephyr Cove	35	7	100%	217	$1,395,000	$895,000	$875,000
Incline	55	10	95%	128	$1,399,000	$945,000	$930,000
TOTAL	1,897	852	81%	98	$400,000	$292,000	$288,000

GREEN signals relatively tight marketing in the areas.

RED formatting signals relatively looser markets.

Carson Valley and Lyon County areas are up over 20%. Lake Tahoe is trailing just a little bit at a 13% increase.

All in all, I believe we are going to enjoy a wonderful, balanced real estate market in 2017, I believe the new administration will be business and real estate friendly, which only adds to the overall enthusiasm and optimism.

If you have any questions on how the projected 2017 real estate market will affect your current, or desired property, please feel free to contact me.