As we prepare to begin a New Year and ponder where our Real Estate market is heading, I think it is important to examine the trends from the previous year and, to some degree, factor in the overall housing recovery since 2012. By doing this, it provides a basic framework of predictability. Often there are wild cards (catastrophic events, significant market shifts in the financial markets etc.) that can cause a slowing or a dramatic upward swing of confidence that can impact supply and demand. When making predictions and forecasts as far as Real Estate goes, not only should we consider statistics and raw data, but we must also factor in other things like the human element, overall consumer confidence, the political landscape, regulations, and local market data.
At the national level, Realtor.com is forecasting a “slowing yet moderate growth” cycle. It appears that the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.) is forecasting a similar picture statewide – conservatively a 1-2% increase in Year to Year average sold price. Both of these groups (National and State) are probably correct if you take into consideration the overall health of our National and State economies.
With that said; here is a picture of the overall market in the Greater Sacramento and Sierra Foothills communities showing a year to year comparison on the average sold price.
- Sacramento County Average sold price 2016 – $351,000 Up 9% from 2015
- El Dorado County Average sold price 2016 – $434,000 Up 7% from 2015
- Placer County Average sold price 2016 – $438,000 Up 9% from 2015
- Yolo County Average sold price 2016 – $443,000 No increase
- Nevada County Average sold price 2016 – $393,000 Up 9% from 2015
- Sutter/Yuba Average sold price 2016 – $252,000 Up 6% from 2015
- Butte County Average sold price 2016 – $267,000 Up 8% from 2015
At the local level, we are predicting almost a repeat of 2016 in 2017, with a slow start just like last year. Yuba City’s and Nevada County’s stats are similar to what we are seeing in El Dorado County. Consumer confidence seems to be improving slightly, although wages haven’t kept up with costs so our forecasts should remain conservative. If we see a lessening of regulation, an increase in wages, increased job opportunities, or greater support from the government in relation to small businesses then that would change things in a big way.
If you have any questions on how the projected 2017 real estate market will affect your current, or desired property, please feel free to contact me.